How To Mark Poker Cards
Fri, 12 Feb 2010 20:21:08 +0000
If you’d like to factor in the Uncommons, it’s easy to do so. There are 40 in Worldwake, of which only two are truly relevant. Assuming all others are zero value, the mean value of Uncommons is $0.075, (1.5 + 1.5) / 40. Since we get three to a pack, we multiply by 3 (just as we multiplied by .125 with the Mythic Rares), which brings us to $0.225 per pack. Here, it’s okay to round up to $0.23. Because the Uncommon distribution has nothing to do with the Rare or Mythic distribution, we simply add $0.23 to $2.90 to get $3.13, and there’s our EV!
Actually, calling that number EV is a bit misleading. That’s your mean value, weighted, per pack, and it doesn’t take into account foils or the bulk price of commons and uncommons (which is roughly $4 per thousand, so it doesn’t really change your EV). Your EV can only be derived once you have a cost per pack. CoolStuffInc.com can ship you a box of Worldwake for about $90 after all associated costs, which amounts to $2.50 per pack. Thus, your true “EV” on a box of WWK from CoolStuffInc is a cool +$0.63 a pack! Killer!
Comparing Worldwake to previous sets, I’m a bit disappointed. The EV of Zendikar was ridiculous because of fetch lands and M10 was high because of a lot of expensive cards. Both had mean pack values approaching the $4 mark, which was almost unheard of pre–M10. Worldwake probably has some room to grow, since the Pro Tour is right around the corner. New tech will almost assuredly emerge, and with it, values will certainly change. Because so much value is concentrated in two Mythic rares, the variance of the set is much higher than average. In fact, if you remove Jace and Abyssal Persecutor and zero them out, your mean pack value drops to $2.00 even. With a rate of about 4–5 Mythics per box, you can easily miss both Jace and Persecutor in a single box, and there’s no guarantee you’ll get either as you continue opening boxes. Without knowing much about the print runs, it seems safe to say that if you’re opening Worldwake to fill out sets and a trade binder, open at least 3 boxes.
Having sold multiple cases to local players myself, I can say that the best way to open Worldwake is to find someone with whom you can split a 6-box booster case and agree in advance to split the cards, not the boxes. I saw a pair of guys split a case. One opened all the Jaces, one opened all the Persecutors. There was much animosity. Thus, I suggest that you split a case with a trusted friend and basically Rochester Draft the rares to keep. Not common, but a good way to minimize variance and keep everyone happy.
That’s it for now! Hopefully the prerelease and release weekends didn’t burn you out too badly, since we have a brand new Standard format to play this week at FNM! I’ve been grinding out new decks, but nothing has yet convinced me to stop playing Jund. I will say this, however: Grixis can see an awful lot of cards by using Ponder, Halimar Depths and Treasure Hunt. What you do with that information is up to you, but I may just tune up my list and play it at my store’s Standard tournament this evening.
Talk to you next week, Magic fans!
